This piece was written by Austin Garret — you can follow him on BlueSky @Austin716.
As we head to the American Thanksgiving holiday I find myself having just a few players left on my preliminary list that I haven’t tracked or scouted yet. This time of year usually marks the end of identifying the top-end talent of the draft, and moves into slotting possible middle/late round players into the rankings and shifting around the top-end talent depending on development. The depths of a draft means a lot of viewings where you’re mildly impressed or players that are pleasant surprises that end up moving up the board.
For the past few years I’ve tried to do a mix-methods approach to building my list with three games of manual tracking and three games of qualitative shift-by-shift notes. It usually breaks down to one game a month unless a player is injured.
The rest of the year these posts will follow a set format: 3 players I’m higher on than consensus (or have moved up my rankings), 2 players I’m lower on than consensus (or moved down in my rankings), a potpourri of random thoughts of the players I’ve watched during the time period, and my latest North American Rankings.
3 Players Trending Up
Jordan Duguay, W, Portland
I don’t see anyone ranking Jordan Duguay, and I would be happy to have Duguay be my first pick in the first round if I had a pick in the late teens onward. He is a highly efficient playmaker who processes the game quickly with pre-planned, one-touch passes and is able to move defenders to open passing lanes to move the puck through the neutral zone and the offensive zone. He gets to the dirty areas to get his shot off and moves into space off-puck to be a threat as well.
Above all else: Duguay is engaged all 200 feet of the ice. He’s hard on pucks, not afraid to battle on the boards, or to take contact to make a play. He doesn’t make it easy for opponents in any zone. He’s one of the most efficient passers in the dataset, sends 17% of his passes to dangerous areas of the ice, and is a medium volume shooter with almost all coming from the inside. His skill level isn’t going to pop off the screen, but in terms of making all the little plays that lead to offensive chances and keeping possession: he’s going to make some team very happy.
Bode Laylin, RHD, Tri-City (USHL)
A defenseman with good size and decent mobility, Laylin shows confidence in activating offensively, often pushing deep into the zone rather than settling for low-percentage point shots. He handles the puck well enough to make plays, and his shot is a legitimate weapon when he finds space. Defensively, Laylin competes well in battles and reads pinches effectively. However, his blue-line defense is a concern, as he frequently gives up too much space and can be exploited off the rush. He also made two major puck-management mistakes with one turnover in front that resulted in a goal and another blocked point shot that led to a dangerous chance the other way.
While I question if the offensive ceiling is high enough to warrant first-round consideration, his offensive tools, off-puck defensive game, and compete level make him a solid second-round candidate.
Alex Mclean, W, Guelph (OHL)
A skilled and deceptive forward who consistently finds ways to get inside and make plays, Mclean executes simple passes cleanly and can make difficult feeds look routine. While his pace isn’t top tier, he still drives play effectively and impacts shifts with the puck on his stick. Defensively, Mclean is solid, though greater involvement and more puck touches would help unlock additional upside.
His data was great though in his first game tracked. Over a 50% offensive transition involvement with over 80% efficiency, completed over 80% of his passes with 17% going to high/medium danger areas, and an upper third shot volume player when accounting for the limited playing time.
I think his role expands as the year goes on and he moves up the lineup and earns top 6 playing time at some point in the second half of the year. His skillset projects as a strong second-round talent that will most likely be available in the mid-late rounds if the playing time doesn’t improve.
2 Players Trending Down
Keaton Verhoeff, RHD, University of North Dakota
While the world asks “What’s wrong with McKenna?”I’m left wondering if Verhoeff is the best NHL defensive prospect in North America. There are certainly aspects of Verhoeff’s game that warrant him being a top prospect. He has a cannon of a shot, is physically strong and mature in all facets of the game and the NCAA isn’t too rough-and-tough for him, and he flashes skill in his breakout passes at times.
However, after multiple viewings and putting off my tracking hoping UND would take the training wheels off his deployment, I’m left with an impression that he will be a strong top-four defenseman, but question if his offensive game will translate to the NHL better than Chase Reid or Xavier Villeneuve.
It’s worth noting that my own personal philosophy places a bit more emphasis on the offensive traits at even strength for high-end defensemen rather than the shutdown ability. As a defensive-defenseman he’s ahead of Reid and Villeneuve by a good margin. However, he doesn’t have clean feet in his lateral mobility and his puck skill is lacking compared to his counterparts in the rankings tier. He isn’t activating or being aggressive and moving into space to get his shot off as much as he should, and UND is using him as the conservative defensive partner and letting his partner be the offensive weapon off of draws and in transition.
Verhoeff, more than any prospect in North America, has a lot riding on international showings this year. If he can demonstrate a more offensive game he can reclaim his spot as the top defenseman, but from what I’ve seen I’d prefer Reid and Villeneuve if I were in the top 10.
Cooper Williams, C, Saskatoon
Williams is ranked often as a late-teens/early-twenties pick across scouting platforms, and is someone I don’t think I would take until the early third round ideally. Williams displays good vision and awareness with the puck, but overall pace and engagement levels are inconsistent. He struggles to impact play in transition, often lacking the speed and urgency needed to drive possession up ice. When set up in the offensive zone, can make smart reads and distribute effectively. He has offensive tools but needs to elevate intensity and play-driving habits to reach his potential. As a center, I find his lack of defensive engagement, transition ability, and overall pace to be serious red flags to rank as a player you’d be happy to take with the first pick in your draft. If he was the third player coming off my board I could swing on the upside, but there’s too much risk involved in his profile to end up as a top two-round candidate for me.
Potpourri of thoughts
- Zack Pantelakis brings high-end pace and is consistently hard on pucks, frequently pressuring defenders and forcing mistakes. His game resembles Ryan Brown with his motor and competitiveness. While his skill level can be inconsistent shift to shift, he owns a heavy shot that can beat goalies from range. If he continues to develop his playmaking and ability to drive offense through creation rather than just pressure, there is room for him to rise into the 2nd–3rd round conversation.
- Ethan Gardner is a diminutive forward who is hard not to appreciate. He did the heavy lifting for linemates Greentree and Belchetz in the game tracked, but was not involved in the primary shot or shot-assist on the play. A strong facilitator, Gardner consistently makes the right reads and helps drive possession through smart, simple touches. His lack of size was a limiting factor in this game, as he struggled at times to overcome physical mismatches, but his compete level and motor are undeniable. A late-round swing with the hope that he takes the driver’s seat next season and proves he can steer a line on his own.
- Zachary Lansard shows some puck skill and has the ability to get into scoring areas, but his game remains very raw. He can be clunky at times and struggles as a pass receiver, which limits his ability to contribute in possession. Playing alongside Fawcett and Kassen, he isn’t relied upon to handle the puck and often spends large stretches of his shift without meaningful involvement. Defensively, he isn’t strong, though he will battle and compete. At this stage, he projects as a possible late-round pick who will need to clean up his mechanics and involvement to unlock more value.
- Qualitative notes on Mathis Preston and maybe a justification of his drop in the rankings: provides excellent offensive puck support and reads the play well, consistently putting himself in spots to keep possession moving. He’s a good skater with enough mobility to cheat offensively and still recover defensively. One standout moment came on a slick behind-the-back pass upon an offensive zone entry to a middle-lane attacker, highlighting his creativity and poise with the puck. He prefers to maintain control rather than dump pucks, often making a smart play before heading off for a change. However, his game shows some limitations with physicality. Preston was outmuscled by diminutive Lukas Sawchyn on a retrieval behind the net twice in a period. Contact and board battles remain an area for improvement. Overall, he’s a cerebral possession forward with skill, but refining his physical game would help round out his toolkit.
Quick hitters:
- He played just over 8 minutes in the game, but Landon Nycz is interesting with his size, mobility, and carry-out transition ability. I’d swing on him in the mid-rounds.
- I have no idea what to make of Cameron Kuzma. He’s plodding around the ice but then will make three moves around two defenders and roof a goal. His data was really good, but I just don’t see how his pace translates any higher to where I have him right now.
- He had a couple wicked snap shots in the game, but I think Alessandro Di Iorio is going to have to work his way back into game shape. He was caught in transition too many times and looked rusty under pressure when making decisions. He’s a guy who could move way up or way down the rankings in the next few weeks when I check back in on him
- JP Hurlbert has swagger. He demands the puck on every shift, and is determined to make something happen in the offensive end. After a dominant first period in the qualitative game, he gave up playing defense and instead just chased offense. At the slightest chance a play could break into an odd-man advantage he was off to the races. There’s a lot to pick apart with his game, but I’ve been around the game long enough to know a guy who has the ability and the confidence to drive a line offensively.
Austin’s North American Rankings
