Bi Weekly Musings: Where I’m at Before Our First Rankings Call

Written by Austin Garret

On Sunday, December 1st the Smaht Scouting team will get together for our first ranking for the 2025 NHL Draft. We’ll rank an initial 32 players with a scattering of about 5-10ish honorable mentions as well. 

As a North American crossover scout, my focus for the past 4+ months have been players who are playing in North America. This next week I’ll do a quick run through of who our European/Global scouts have put forward as top 32 candidates just so I have an idea of the player and what I see from them through a (much) smaller sample size than the North American players. 

Before I post my own list; I do think it’s important to put out a few disclaimers. Firstly, I have my own biases when I evaluate a player. I will rank forwards who are effective transition players and who can create plays that lead to scoring chances. I put a larger emphasis on offensive ability and microstats for defensemen followed by their defensive ability. My rationale is pretty simple: I view the draft as an opportunity to land players that are harder to acquire through a trade or would cost a fortune in free agency (when you’re paying for their post-prime years). Some of the players I have ranked lower I, personally, would bet that they’ll play more NHL games than some that are ranked higher. However, it’s a risk/reward type of analysis and projecting to these players that formulates my philosophy when I’m drafting.

Secondly, if players come out of the Smaht ranking in a much different order: I won’t be upset. We have a diverse set of thought processes and opinions within the team that I am not expecting a group-think mentality on a lot of these players.

Lastly, when I ran numbers last year for drafts after 2009 I found that the average number of players from a draft to play 200 NHL games was a bit over 2 players per team. Obviously, teams who had multiple first round picks did better than teams who had 3-4 selections and all of them in the mid-late rounds. However, you’re going to miss some of the swings you make in a draft. That’s an obvious conclusion. My question to NHL teams and anyone in this business of scouting would be: what were swinging for when you selected the player? Missing on a fringe player or missing on a player you thought that, if everything broke right, would be a steal in that range? My philosophy lands in the latter part of the question.

Without further adieu, where I’m at going into next weekend.

Five General Thoughts About the Five Tiers

1. The 2025 North American class is extremely top heavy.

It’s been fun going through the first four names on this list and debating the order they should be in for me. My first post talked about who could unseat James Hagens, but I’ll be honest and say that I thought Hagens had the #1 spot locked up even prior to him playing a game for Boston College. My opinion has changed over the last month.

It’s not so much that Hagens has disappointed, but rather the leap that Misa made from last year to this year as well as the tantalizing prospect that a team with two centers could have in landing one of the best power forwards to come out in a draft class in awhile with Porter Martone. 

I landed on Misa sitting at number one at this point for a couple reasons. The first being that his move to his natural position of center has unlocked a puck-dominant, two-way threat offensively that both shows up in casual viewings and through data analysis.  He drives both shot generation in scoring areas on his own stick as well as is one the best in my data set in setting up scoring chances for others. Hagens has impressed as well, but his play creation isn’t nearly as consistent as Misa (partly because Gabe Perreault has taken the lead on his line for this) and his neutral zone transition game hasn’t been as strong as Misa’s even accounting for the difference in competition levels. Martone isn’t nearly as involved in transition nor as puck dominant as the other two, but his style of game for a team that does not need a play-driving pivot could easily see him become the number one pick in this draft.

Schaefer is rounding into form after his bout of mononucleosis to start the year, and as the year progresses could see himself supplant himself as an option over the other three given an NHL’s team’s need.

2. If you like fun, then the second tier is for you.

I probably have Cole Reschny a lot higher than my peers. I believe the main reason will be the average pace in his north/south game and he doesn’t make up for it with lateral agility or shiftniness. However, in terms of pure impact on a hockey game when he’s on the ice, he’s one of my favorite players in this class. He generates shot attempts on his own stick, facilitates for his teammates, suffocates space defensively, and is always in support offensively/defensively as a center. He is second in the entire dataset in the number of passes going to scoring areas and isn’t a low volume passer. He’s the only player to be sitting over a 60% offensive transition involvement rate two games into his dataset. He’s a smart, detailed player with quick processing decisions and who is driving results without a top-tier cast of linemates. Love the way this kid plays hockey.

Lynden Lakovic might be the smoothest skater in this draft class when you factor in his size. Players that are 6’4 aren’t supposed move like he does. He also possesses a puck handling ability of a much smaller player, able to play in tight spaces without having to lean on his size as the only way to shield the puck. He’s highly efficient and involved in offensive transitions and gets to dirty areas to get his shot off. He has some developmental growth in his offensive zone playmaking, and if that develops he could be a giant steal come the first round of the NHL Draft.

I don’t know what else Carter Bear has to do during his draft season to get ranked inside the top 8 through consolidated rankings. His point production pops off the sheet, but he’s not just a passenger on Julius Miettinen’s line. He’s fleet of foot and has above average puck skill. He creates on his own and isn’t just a middle or end-of-chain type of producer. He’s secondary in transition, but his involvement is still impressive and his effectiveness as well. He’s tenacious as a defender as a winger. He should climb up rankings lists as the year goes on.

Jackson Smith and Cullen Potter are two players I’ve talked at length about. Putting Potter’s age into consideration for the NCAA and then watching him dictate so much has been impressive. Smith continues to be one of the most electrifying offensive defenders in North America.

3. The Green Tier of potential

The Ben Kindel ranking and the Roger McQueen ranking are the two I am trusting my process with and hoping I don’t get made a fool of to start the year. Kindel just hasn’t had a bad game yet, and has been getting better every time I see him play. Similar to Reschny, a player that is highly involved and thinks the game very well and quickly as a pivot. His offensive transition success percentage isn’t where I’d like it to be, and it does give me pause given that his skill doesn’t pop off the screen, but everything else screams a mid-first round talent at this time.

Roger McQueen, before he got injured, just never gave me the viewing that I wanted from a player who is touted to be a top pick in this year’s draft. He had just 3 shots at even strength through two games, is one of the least involved players in transition, and neither completed passes or gained the offensive zone at a rate that I could rank higher than this. He flashes high-end skill from time-to-time, but I’d label him a developmental project at the moment. How much you believe you can squeeze that potential out of him will drive your opinion of where to take him in the draft.

Cameron Reid might be the best transition defender I’ve seen in North America, and with a bit more aggressive activation at even strength could challenge to be a top 12 pick in this year’s draft. Jake O’Brien falls into the Reschny/Kindel archetype offensively but plays at a much lower pace, and his defensive game still has a ways to go to be able to play center at the NHL level.

4. The Purple Tier of massive swings.

I’ll run through these quickly.

• Logan Hensler shows promise as a carry-out, offensive transition defender who has four way skating ability. His passing decisions have been erratic to start the year, and he’s been conservative in his activation strategies from the blue line. There’s flashes of really good offensive tools, but still a lot of meat on the bone of what I’d like to see to jump him up the rankings.
• Cam Schmidt is an amazing skater who is always looking to put the puck in the back in the net. He has deception in his rush lane differentiation, however his passing metrics have been sub-par and he could stand to balance out his shooting with more play creation in the offensive zone.
• Nathan Behm is a power forward who flashes higher-end skill that could possibly play second fiddle on a line. He was more of a facilitator and transition passer in my first viewing and then ramped up the shot generation in the scoring areas in the second game. If he can develop more skill in his offensive zone entries he could be a truly dynamic forward.
• Adam Benak funnels his entire passing game to scoring areas and isn’t afraid to go off the puck to the scoring areas as well. He gets out-muscled way too often on the boards and is easy to push off the puck. Give him a couple years to build up strength and he could really take off in the North American game.
• The player on the NTDP that I think stands the most to gain from the NTDP/CHL series is Fondrk. He’s shown high-level play creation and skill, if he’s able to stand out in the CHL series this week I think he could cement himself with Mooney as the NTDP forwards who drive play for the rest of the season.
• Ryker Lee is a transition king. Always a player when watching Madison I have to rewind after a “Who was that?!” moment and it’s usually Lee. He’s a bit erratic in his offensive zone game where he can force passes or skate himself into precarious situations, but the skill/skating is there.
• Braeden Cootes is a player I’ve always traditionally liked. He’s a great skater with a motor who involves himself defensively and is a plus player in transition. He has been more of a playmaker for others than he is at creating shot opportunities for himself. 
• Mason Moe is a fluid pivot. Very good defensively and is so good at burying chances and making small area passes that create shots. The skill pops and the metrics are there, but there needs to be more involvement for him to cement himself into the first round.
• Cornforth is undersized and this ranking is a bit of a stretch, but he has a 20% shot share, 20% of his passes go to the scoring areas and he is a transition monster with a 57% involvement rate with a 90% success rate. I wish he was a tad faster given his smaller frame, but he has all the makings of an undersized winger who will make an impact in the future.
• Justin Carbonneau is a player that my eyes might like more than my brain does. His one-on-one skill and ability to hammer shots from scoring areas sticks in your brain. However, the data behind his game is less than ideal. Completing just 62% of his passes and a 60% success rate in transition through two games is not ideal. The skill is there, but the rest of his game has to round out to justify the ranking.

5. The Honorable Mentions

• There are a lot of names that are appearing much higher in consolidated rankings in this tier. It’s not that I don’t like the player, but rather the players above them have outplayed and/or have a longer potential runway than I see with some of these players.
• DRM and Boudmedienne are different players with the same flaw: they just don’t project to be offensive defensemen in the NHL, nor are they stalwarts in the defensive zone. Both are great puck movers, and DRM might be the smartest player with the puck and off-puck defender in the class, but not players I’d take with my first pick.
• Brady Martin is raw. Generates a lot of shots, flashes some great skill from time-to-time, but also is a turnover machine at the offensive blue line and struggles to create plays.
• Malcolm Spence is going to be an NHLer. How high his potential will be will be determined by how much better he gets at processing the game faster to make passes and/or adding another gear to his north/south speed.
• I love LJ Mooney. I just don’t think LJ Mooney knows he’s 5’6 and plays a very reckless game. He has above average skill, but at that size, I want him to blow the doors down with skill if I’m taking him any higher than the second round.
• Desnoyers is an ideal second round pick to me. Great off the puck in the offensive zone at getting into spaces to get his shot off, great passenger in transition who compliments a highly talented forward, and facilitates play in the offensive zone but without creating dangerous scoring chances for his teammates. There’s room for improvement in his game, but the skill level isn’t high enough for me to justify putting him in the first.
• Luca Romano is a player that has all the tools to be a riser in this year’s draft, but he’s gotta put it together first. He plays at a great pace, is defensively responsible, and has above average skill. The data isn’t there for him yet, but I could see him flying up my board as the year goes on.

Follow me at @austin716.bsky.social on BlueSky for prospect takes, videos, and general ramblings about the Buffalo Sabres.