Written by Austin Garret
We at Smaht Scouting have our first rankings call coming up this Saturday, October 25th. This is a bit earlier than usual, and given the amount of rankings that have come out early this year, it makes sense that we’ll get started on our initial top 32 as well.
There are still a couple of players I haven’t tracked yet that I will get to this week (Keaton Verhoeff being the biggest name left), but I thought I would go into my tiers for my current rankings. I’m currently at 41 players tracked and 54 players watched to start the year in North America. There is a lot of depth to this draft, but not a lot of players really separating themselves for me to pound the table for.
I have five tiers to my rankings currently that I am considering for first round consideration.
Tier 1: Top Pick Contender
1.) Gavin McKenna, W, NCAA
I haven’t seen anyone in North America who should go ahead of McKenna as of right now. Those last four words “as of right now” are imperative to the conversation about McKenna and the top pick. While he is far-and-away the best at playmaking through his passing in my dataset and through my qualitative notes, he hasn’t really shown much else that is high-end and, in fact, shows a lot of deficiencies.
He’s decently involved in offensive transitions but is not very involved in driving transitions with the puck on his stick across blue lines. He’s more of a receiver of passes in the neutral zone for defensive exits and passing to teammates coming over the offensive blue line. He doesn’t drive the puck inside with the puck on his stick very often, and prefers to play a give-and-go type of game with a teammate to move himself to scoring positions.
McKenna’s defensive game is non-existent at the moment. It’s rare to see him backchecking, he doesn’t engage physically along the boards, and he is a statue in the defensive zone and doesn’t move to cover the slot or give defensive support down low from his wing position.
His passing is sublime and he is one of the most creative play creators I’ve ever seen. However, whether or not he holds onto the top spot in North America may depend on how the other aspects of his offensive game round out over the course of the season.
Tier 2: Top 5 Contenders
2.) Mathis Preston, W, WHL
3.) J.P. Hurlbert, C/W, WHL
Players that play like Mathis Preston will always be high on my rankings board. A transition engine for his line who is able to create both with his puck skill and his vision; Preston gave the same impression that Ben Kindel gave a year ago. He’s dynamic and quick paced, engages sufficiently in the defensive end, and rarely has a bad shift. When volume and efficiency are both there for a player in the offensive transition and passing data then I’m instantly a fan. For Preston to start challenging McKenna he’s going to have to create more through his passing to dangerous areas of the ice, but he facilitates so much of what Spokane is doing in the offensive zone that it’s asking him to become even more puck dominant.
I just finished the first game of Hurlbert for my qualitative scouting and there was the same note that I had for his tracked game: on his best shifts he looks like a sure-fire top 5 player. The qualifier of that note is what scares me. His best shifts include puck skill and play creation, being defensively engaged in his center role, and driving transition especially over the offensive blue line. However, he has a few shifts every game where he lazily chips the puck out of the defensive zone or blindly throws pucks to the front of the net. If he can string together his best shifts through a multiple game viewing sample, then I think he could challenge for an even higher ranking.
Tier 3: Possible Lottery Selection/First Round Grade
4.) Nikita Klepov, W, OHL
5.) Xavier Villeneuve, LHD, QMJHL
6.) Ryan Lin, RHD, WHL
7.) Julien Maze, W, WHL
8.) Ethan Beltchetz, W, OHL
9.) Chase Reid, RHD, OHL
10.) Yegor Shilov, C, QMJHL
Going to start with the defensive group first. Watching Xavier Villeneuve reminds me of my youth and watching And1 Mixtapes where the whole point of the game was to get a guy one-on-one and try to break their ankles and embarrass them. Villeneuve relishes his opportunity at the top of the blue line in the offensive zone to try to embarrass the defender before slipping past him. In the offensive zone this looks amazing, but when he does it when trying to break out the puck it’s anxiety inducing. As a defenseman he has some serious limitations mostly surrounding his lack of size and physicality and that he won’t always engage along the backboards or corners and will poke with his stick. However, he’s an offensive dynamo with a 50% shot share in the game tracked including 5 dangerous shot attempts (no defensemen has more than 2 in the dataset so far). He’s involved in over 43% of his teams transitions, which is a number only eclipsed by Matthew Schaefer and Lane Hutson in my history. He’s an acquired taste for an NHL team taking him, but if you can live with the times you get caught in your own end in an endless cycle game, you’ll reap the rewards of what he can do for you once you have the puck.
Ryan Lin’s offensive game is more about aggressiveness, activation, and quick passes than it is about puck skill and lateral agility. His defensive game is better than Villeneuve from an engagement and structure standpoint, but his mobility isn’t high end and he’s a bit undersized. This has caused him to have no answer for a bigger, more mobile forward coming down on him in transition. Chase Reid has all the tools, the size, and is a play killer in the defensive zone. He has great four-way mobility at the blue line to dance around defenders to get up into the zone, very good puck skill, and doesn’t suffer from inverted vision problems at finding teammates when entering the offensive zone with the puck on his stick. He just isn’t consistent in his execution yet. Whether that’s completing passes or entering/exiting the zone with possession: his efficiency isn’t where it needs to be to be considered elite. He has the size and tools to bet on, and if he goes before Villeneuve and Lin in the draft I won’t be surprised.
I’ve written about each of the forwards separately in the previous Bi-Weekly Musings, but essentially it comes down to great, scoring power forwards who will be passengers in transition (Belchetz and Klepov), an analytics darling who is undersized (Julien Maze), and a player who flashes elite level skill but doesn’t have the analytical profile yet to make the jump up to another tier (Shilov).
Tier IV: First Round Players I’ll be Advocating For
11.) Brooks Rogowski, C, OHL
12.) Lars Steiner, RW, QMJHL
13.) Maddox Dagenais, C, QMJHL
14.) Jordan Duguay, LW, WHL
15.) Ryan Roobroeck, W, OHL
16.) Daxon Rudolph, RHD, WHL
Let’s start with the big boys in Rogowski, Steiner, Dagenais and Roobroeck. Rogowski and Steiner had very similar analytical profiles. They were upper echelon shooters who shot from distance (Steiner has a wicked shot and can get away with it at the QMJHL level) who also had puck skill to transition the puck over the offensive blue line and facilitate play. Steiner is the more physical of the two players and plays a crash-and-bang type of game that’s coupled with his lethal shot that he can change angles on in a heartbeat. Rogowski is more of a playmaker in the offensive zone and looks to use his frame in the cycle game and hit the diving forward in the slot as his offensive production preferred tool. Both can skate and are agile for their size with Rogowski’s stop-start acceleration a tad behind where I’d want it to be.
Roobroeck and Dagenais are high volume shooters and amongst the highest shot rates in the entire dataset currently. I like Dagenais’ game more due to his skating fluidity and deft puck skill for his size. More than a few times did he impress with his ability to puck handle through the neutral zone and use his edges to make lateral moves around smaller defenders. Roobroeck was low paced and was not active moving pucks over blue lines in transition. He’s not engaged defensively, but his ability to make a quick move in the offensive zone and zip a pass or shot jacked up his dangerous passing and shooting rates.
Jordan Duguay has just played complete games every time I’ve watched him play. A super effective and impactful passer, he’s able to use his skill and vision to maintain possession and drive plays to the inside with his passing. He’s very engaged in all three zones, and a constant hound of the puck and always in support. He plays the game the right way, has the skill to transport the puck, fantastic vision, and has flexibility up-and-down a lineup. I’d like to see more shot attempts in dangerous areas and to look to get the puck back after facilitating play, but a great player so far into the season.
I talked about Daxon Rudolph previously, but I really do like Rudolph as a top four defenseman who gets paired with an offensive leaning partner. His offense isn’t very projectable at the moment, a lot of being driven off of the volume of point shots, but I do like his defensive game a lot and he’s smart with his first pass. I tend to lean towards power play quarterbacks in the first round of the draft, but his all around game is tantalizing.
Tier V: Could be first rounders
17.) Adam Valentini, LW, NCAA
18.) Rylan Singh, RHD, OHL
19.) Jack Hextall, C, USHL
20.) Carson Carels, LHD, WHL
21.) Leon Kolarik, LW, OHL
I love Jack Hextall. I’ve been on the Jack Hextall bandwagon for two years. However, his first game tracked was pretty bad. He projected a lot of sloppy skill plays which means that he fumbled pucks, had multiple bad touches, and struggled to complete chain-linked plays. It just wasn’t consistent during the game I watched. He also tried a between-the-legs back pass that went the other way for a game deciding break away goal. He’s hard on pucks, super physical, and in past viewings, was always impactful and drove such great results. I imagine that he’ll rise into my first round sooner rather than later.
Adam Valentini is a player that I am not sure where to rank at the moment. I’m a diehard Michigan hockey fan, and he’s been fantastic to start the year playing alongside the likes of TJ Hughes and Nick Moldenhauer. Great analytical profile, but I’m not sure his skating is enough to overcome his size and he’s playing really well with his linemates but he’s not driving the results. I’m torn between is he a beneficiary of his linemates or is he fuel that makes the engine run? He has flirted with being the last player after Rudolph in the last tier, but ultimately I would be happier if Valentini was the second player that came off my board and not the first one.
I think Rylan Singh is super smart and activates at all the right times to get his offense. I like his defensive game as well, but I don’t see the puck skill or play killing ability at a high enough level to rank in the first. Carson Carels flashes high-end ability but goes invisible for far too long in all phases of the game. Leon Kolarik is super skilled and love his vision with the puck. He has to get more physical in his defensive engagements as I don’t think he can live as a pure-offense type of prospect.
Flashes in the pan these past two weeks
Just a list of players here that did something cool that I’ve noted over the past two weeks who are either an overager or a player that was off my radar.
Noa Ta’amu, LHD, WHL: He is an agitator and looks to hit anything that comes near him.
Will McLaughlin, LHD, WHL
Kayd Ruedig*, RHD, WHL
Matus Lisy*, LHD, WHL: I am honestly shocked his point production is so low. He pulled some nasty moves on guys in the neutral zone.
Zach Wooten**, C, USHL: He was a menace against Youngstown. Every time he touched the puck he was breaking down the defense and getting where ever he wanted.
Tommy Bleyl, RHD, QMJHL: He broke Vlasov’s ankles twice in a shift and I was enamored. Has some wonky passing decisions but the skill level is super high.
Follow me at @austin716.bsky.social on BlueSky for prospect takes, videos, and general ramblings about the Buffalo Sabres.